Three series hold the score back: China's OECD composite leading indicator at 97.4, below 100 since November 2025, the United States' real policy rate at +1.43 %, above trend since September 2026, and China's house prices year on year at −5.9 %, below zero since Q1 2022. On the safe side, the United States' exports year on year are 14.8 pp above zero and its four-week initial claims 30k below. The regime last changed on 31 May 2026, from Uneven growth.
How broadly the indicators are clear of their thresholds, across six economies that are 68% of world GDP. How the bands are cut.
Filled square, triggered: the threshold is crossed. Hollow, watch: within one step of the threshold and the distance is printed. Half-filled, post-trigger: it was crossed and has come back. A short bar, no threshold: shown for context only. A dot means the indicator does not exist for that region.
| Date | Indicator | Status | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | Real policy rate US | Triggered | +1.43 % |
| Sep 2026 | NBS manufacturing PMI CN | Cleared | 50.1 |
| Sep 2026 | NBS non-manufacturing PMI CN | Cleared | 50.2 |
| Aug 2026 | Decision Maker Panel, expected employment growth UK | Cleared | +0.11 % |
| Jul 2026 | NBS non-manufacturing PMI CN | Triggered | 49.0 |
| Jul 2026 | Economy Watchers Survey, current conditions JP | Cleared | 45.2 |
We write only when a threshold is crossed. In a calm month, nothing arrives.