Japan · Structural layer · Indicator

Debt service ratio, private sector

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
15.5 %
Triggered above threshold since Q4 2025 · rising
As of Q1 2026 · Threshold > 10-yr mean + 1 pp
Recession, May 1997 to Jan 1999Recession, Nov 2000 to Jan 2002Recession, Feb 2008 to Mar 2009Recession, Mar 2012 to Nov 2012Recession, Oct 2018 to May 202014161820Threshold > 10-yr mean + 1 ppTrigger > 10-yr mean + 1 pp200020052010201520202025
1999 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Japan's bands are the Cabinet Office reference dates from the peak month.
What it is

Interest plus amortisation of the private non-financial sector as a share of income. The BIS series for Japan runs from 1999 and has never been higher than its first print, 20.0 % in Q1 1999; it stood at 15.5 % in Q1 2026.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction after Drehmann and Juselius (2012), BIS. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Assumes a standard maturity for all debt.