Japan is green. The structural layer, its weakest, is elevated; holding it back are the private-sector debt service ratio at 15.5 %, above trend since Q4 2025, and the credit-to-GDP gap at +5.7 pp, 4.3 pp below its trigger. The cycle layer is expanding. One of the two structural series is triggered.
| Indicator | Latest | Threshold | Distance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service ratio, private sector | 15.5 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp | above threshold since Q4 2025 | Triggered |
| Economy Watchers Survey, current conditions | 45.5 | < 45 | returned Jul 2026 | Post-trigger |
| Core CPI, y/y | 2.7 % | > 3.0 % | 0.3 pp below | Watch |
| OECD composite leading indicator | 100.3 | < 100 and falling | 0.3 above | Watch |
| Credit-to-GDP gap | +5.7 pp | > 10 pp | 4.3 pp below | Normal |
| 10y–2y JGB spread * | +0.94 pp | < 0 for 3 months | 0.94 pp above | Normal |
| Unemployment rate | 2.5 % | > 12-month low + 0.5 pp | 0.4 pp below | Normal |
| House prices, y/y | +5.0 % | < 0 for 2 quarters | 5.0 pp above | Normal |
| Real policy rate | −1.66 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp, and rising | 1.27 pp below | Normal |
| Exports, y/y | +12.8 % | < 0 for 2 months | 12.8 pp above | Normal |
| Overnight call rate | 1.04 % | — | Context | |
| Government debt, % of GDP | 175.6 % | — | Context |
Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.