worldstat.us · Region
Japan
6 of 9 series current
5% of world GDP
18 Sep 2026
67 /100
Green · expansion
56 Structuralelevated 72 Cycleexpanding — Stressno data
Score, five years, with regime bands
Derived series · not a market price
Expansion: score 65 to 100EXPANSIONLate cycle: score 50 to 65LATE CYCLESlowdown: score 35 to 50SLOWDOWNContraction: score 0 to 35CONTRACTION20222023202420252026

Green because structural is elevated: debt service ratio, private sector 15.5 %, crossed Q4 2025; credit-to-GDP gap +5.7 pp, 4.3 pp below. Cycle is expanding. 1 of 2 structural series triggered.

Indicators · sorted by contribution, most negative first
Every row opens the indicator, its history and its track record.
IndicatorLatestThresholdDistance3-mo trendStatusAs of
Debt service ratio, private sector 15.5 % > 10-yr mean + 1 pp crossed Q4 2025 Rising Triggered Q1 2026
OECD composite leading indicator 100.3 < 100 and falling 0.3 above Rising Watch Aug 2026
Credit-to-GDP gap +5.7 pp > 10 pp 4.3 pp below Flat Normal Q1 2026
10y–2y JGB spread * +1.12 pp < 0 for 3 months 1.12 pp above Flattening Normal 17 Sep
Unemployment rate 2.4 % > 12-month low + 0.5 pp 0.5 pp below Falling Normal Jul 2026
Core CPI, y/y — > 3.0 % — — No data —
Economy Watchers Survey, current conditions — < 45 — — No data —
Exports, y/y — < 0 for 2 months — — No data —
Overnight call rate 0.98 % — Tightening Context Aug 2026

Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.