worldstat.us · Japan · Structural layer · Indicator
Credit-to-GDP gap
Fetched 18 Sep 2026, 10:17 UTC
+5.7 pp
Normal 4.3 pp below the +10.0 pp trigger · flat
As of Q1 2026 · Threshold > 10 pp
Recession, Feb 1991 to Oct 1993Recession, May 1997 to Jan 1999Recession, Nov 2000 to Jan 2002Recession, Feb 2008 to Mar 2009Recession, Mar 2012 to Nov 2012Recession, Oct 2018 to May 2020−30−20−100102030Threshold > 10 ppTrigger > 10 pp19801990200020102020
1974 to 2026 · percentage points. Shaded bands are recessions.
What it is

Credit to the private non-financial sector as a share of GDP, minus its long-run trend.

Threshold source: Basel Committee guidance. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

The trend filter is revised as new quarters arrive.