worldstat.us
Japan · Structural layer · Indicator

Credit-to-GDP gap

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
+5.7 pp
Normal 4.3 pp below the +10.0 pp trigger · flat
As of Q1 2026 · Threshold > 10 pp
Recession, Nov 1973 to Mar 1975Recession, Jan 1977 to Oct 1977Recession, Feb 1980 to Feb 1983Recession, Jun 1985 to Nov 1986Recession, Feb 1991 to Oct 1993Recession, May 1997 to Jan 1999Recession, Nov 2000 to Jan 2002Recession, Feb 2008 to Mar 2009Recession, Mar 2012 to Nov 2012Recession, Oct 2018 to May 2020−30−20−100102030Threshold > 10 ppTrigger > 10 pp19801990200020102020
1974 to 2026 · percentage points. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Japan's bands are the Cabinet Office reference dates from the peak month.
What it is

Credit to the private non-financial sector as a share of GDP, minus its long-run trend.

Threshold source: Basel Committee guidance. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

The trend filter is revised as new quarters arrive.