Japan · Cycle layer · Indicator

Core CPI, y/y

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
2.7 %
Watch 0.3 pp below the 3.0 % trigger · rising
As of Sep 2026 · Threshold > 3.0 %
Recession, Oct 2018 to May 202001234Threshold > 3.0 %Trigger > 3.0 %20182020202220242026
2016 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Japan's bands are the Cabinet Office reference dates from the peak month.
What it is

Consumer prices excluding fresh food and energy, as a change over twelve months, as compiled by the Bank of Japan in its Indicators for Core CPI. It is the measure the Bank cites for underlying inflation, spliced across CPI base years.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: one point above the Bank of Japan's 2 % target. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Published two business days after the official CPI, so about a month after the reference month. The splice across base years introduces small breaks at each rebasing.