Layer

Cycle activity

61 series current

Regenerated 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC

Next 2 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC

67 /100

expanding 4 of 51 triggered

The real policy rate is triggered in two of six regions. Read a row across: the more of it is filled, the more synchronised the turn.

IndicatorUnited StatesUSChinaCNEurozoneEZJapanJPUnited KingdomUKIndiaINOf six

OECD composite leading indicatorMonthly 101.0 CLI 97.4 CLI 100.9 CLI 100.3 CLI 101.4 CLI 102.0 CLI 1

National activity surveyMonthly +23.2 Fed 50.1 PMI 96.9 ESI 45.5 Watchers +0.19 % DMP · 0

Labour triggerMonthly 0.00 Sahm 5.2 % Unemp. 6.5 % Unemp. 2.5 % Unemp. 4.7 % Unemp. · 0

Yield curve +0.78 10y–3m +0.20 10y–3m +0.80 10y–3m +0.94 10y–2y +1.56 10y–Bank Rate +1.81 10y–repo 0

Inflation against targetMonthly 2.6 % Core CPI 1.0 % Core CPI 2.5 % Core HICP 2.7 % Core CPI 2.8 % Core CPI 5.0 % CPI 0

House pricesQuarterly +1.2 % Houses −5.9 % Houses +4.0 % Houses +5.0 % Houses +2.9 % Houses +3.6 % Houses 1

Credit impulse and lending · +5.2 % Credit +4.2 % Loans · +3.9 % M4 · 0

Trade bellwetherMonthly +14.8 % Exports +24.9 % Exports · +12.8 % Exports +5.7 % Exports +26.1 % Exports 0

Output +3.4 % GDP · +0.4 % GDP · +0.7 % GDP 3m/3m +8.0 % IP 0

Policy rate 4.00 % Fed funds 3.00 % LPR 2.50 % Deposit rate 1.04 % Call rate 3.75 % Bank Rate 5.50 % Repo 0

Real policy rateMonthly +1.43 % Real rate +2.00 % Real rate 0.00 % Real rate −1.66 % Real rate +0.95 % Real rate +0.29 % Real rate 2

Triggered in this layer 1 of 102 of 91 of 80 of 80 of 100 of 6 4

Normal Watch, within one step of the threshold and the distance is printed Triggered, the threshold is crossed Post-trigger, it was crossed and has come back No threshold, shown for context only · The indicator does not exist for that region. This is normal, not missing data.