policy rate

18 Sep 2026

The short-term interest rate a central bank sets

The overnight rate a central bank targets to steer inflation and demand; shown for context because it explains the yield curve and the credit cycle rather than predicting them.

Every central bank here steers one overnight rate: the federal funds rate, the ECB's deposit facility rate, Bank Rate, the call rate, the repo rate. Raising it slows borrowing and spending with a lag of a year or more; John Taylor's 1993 rule describes how the rate has typically responded to inflation and the output gap. The direction of change over three months is labelled tightening, easing or on hold.

The policy rate carries no threshold on worldstat.us. Its level is a cause of what the indicators measure, not a symptom: a high rate that stays high is how a yield curve inverts and how credit growth turns negative. It is shown so that the reader can see whether the indicators are turning while policy is still restrictive, which is when downturns have historically followed.

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Related terms

Bank Rate · ECB · call rate · credit impulse · deposit facility rate · fed funds · repo rate · threshold · yield curve

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