United Kingdom · Cycle layer · Indicator

10y gilt minus Bank Rate

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
+1.56 pp
Normal 1.56 pp above zero · steepening

Bank Rate stands in for the three-month yield; the Bank of England's daily database has no short-tenor par yield.

As of 28 Oct 2026 · Threshold < 0 for 3 months
Recession, Apr 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jan 2020 to Jun 2020Recession, Jul 2023 to Dec 2023−3−2−101234Threshold < 0 for 3 monthsTrigger < 0 for 3 months1995200020052010201520202025
1993 to 2026 · percentage points. Shaded bands are recessions.
What it is

The ten-year nominal par gilt yield minus Bank Rate. A ten-year yield below the policy rate for a quarter means markets expect cuts, which has preceded UK recessions.

Threshold source: Yield-curve rule with Bank Rate as the short end, since the Bank of England publishes no daily 3-month par yield. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Using the policy rate as the short end makes the spread jump on decision days rather than drift with expectations.