The United Kingdom is green. The cycle layer, its weakest, is expanding; holding it back are the real policy rate at +0.95 %, above trend with the policy rate no higher than 6 months ago, and the Decision Maker Panel's expected employment growth at +0.19 %, back above zero since August 2026. The structural layer is low risk, with the credit gap at −20.1 pp.
| Indicator | Latest | Threshold | Distance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real policy rate | +0.95 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp, and rising | crossed, with the policy rate no higher than 6 months ago | Watch |
| Decision Maker Panel, expected employment growth | +0.19 % | < 0 | returned Aug 2026 | Post-trigger |
| Exports, y/y | +5.7 % | < 0 for 2 months | 5.7 pp above | Normal |
| Core CPI, y/y | 2.8 % | > 3.5 % | 0.7 pp below | Normal |
| House prices, y/y | +2.9 % | < 0 for 2 quarters | 2.9 pp above | Normal |
| Credit-to-GDP gap | −20.1 pp | > 10 pp | 30.1 pp below | Normal |
| Debt service ratio, private sector | 12.9 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp | 2.0 pp below | Normal |
| Monthly GDP, 3m on 3m | +0.7 % | < 0 | 0.7 pp above | Normal |
| Unemployment rate | 4.7 % | > 12-month low + 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp below | Normal |
| M4 money, y/y | +3.9 % | < 0 | 3.9 pp above | Normal |
| OECD composite leading indicator | 101.4 | < 100 and falling | 1.4 above | Normal |
| 10y gilt minus Bank Rate * | +1.56 pp | < 0 for 3 months | 1.56 pp above | Normal |
| Bank Rate | 3.75 % | — | Context | |
| Government debt, % of GDP | 86.5 % | — | Context |
Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.