worldstat.us · Region
United Kingdom
8 of 11 series current
5% of world GDP
18 Sep 2026
84 /100
Green · expansion
100 Structurallow risk 76 Cycleexpanding — Stressno data
Score, five years, with regime bands
Derived series · not a market price
Expansion: score 65 to 100EXPANSIONLate cycle: score 50 to 65LATE CYCLESlowdown: score 35 to 50SLOWDOWNContraction: score 0 to 35CONTRACTION20222023202420252026

Green because cycle is expanding: monthly GDP, 3m on 3m +0.4 %, 0.4 pp above; core CPI, y/y 2.6 %, 0.9 pp below. Structural is low risk: the credit gap is −20.1 pp.

Indicators · sorted by contribution, most negative first
Every row opens the indicator, its history and its track record.
IndicatorLatestThresholdDistance3-mo trendStatusAs of
Monthly GDP, 3m on 3m +0.4 % < 0 0.4 pp above Falling Normal Jul 2026
Core CPI, y/y 2.6 % > 3.5 % 0.9 pp below Flat Normal Aug 2026
Unemployment rate 4.9 % > 12-month low + 0.5 pp returned Jan 2026 Flat Post-trigger Jun 2026
OECD composite leading indicator 101.1 < 100 and falling 1.1 above Rising Normal Aug 2026
10y gilt minus Bank Rate * +1.61 pp < 0 for 3 months 1.61 pp above Steepening Normal 15 Sep
Credit-to-GDP gap −20.1 pp > 10 pp 30.1 pp below Falling Normal Q1 2026
Debt service ratio, private sector 12.9 % > 10-yr mean + 1 pp 2.0 pp below Falling Normal Q1 2026
Decision Maker Panel, expected employment growth — < 0 — — No data —
M4 money, y/y — < 0 — — No data —
Exports, y/y — < 0 for 2 months — — No data —
Bank Rate 3.75 % — On hold Context 16 Sep

Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.