United Kingdom · Cycle layer · Indicator

Core CPI, y/y

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC
Next release 18 November 2026
2.8 %
Normal 0.7 pp below the 3.5 % trigger · rising
As of Sep 2026 · Threshold > 3.5 %
Recession, Jul 1990 to Sep 1991Recession, Apr 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jan 2020 to Jun 2020Recession, Jul 2023 to Dec 202302468Threshold > 3.5 %Trigger > 3.5 %19901995200020052010201520202025
1989 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.
What it is

Consumer prices excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, as a change over twelve months.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: a point and a half above the Bank of England's 2 % target. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Services inflation, which the Bank of England watches more closely, is not separated out here.