worldstat.us · United Kingdom · Structural layer · Indicator
Credit-to-GDP gap
Fetched 18 Sep 2026, 10:17 UTC
−20.1 pp
Normal 30.1 pp below the +10.0 pp trigger · falling
As of Q1 2026 · Threshold > 10 pp
Recession, Jul 1973 to Mar 1974Recession, Apr 1975 to Sep 1975Recession, Jan 1980 to Mar 1981Recession, Jul 1990 to Sep 1991Recession, Apr 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jan 2020 to Jun 2020Recession, Jul 2023 to Dec 2023−30−20−1001020Threshold > 10 ppTrigger > 10 pp19801990200020102020
1973 to 2026 · percentage points. Shaded bands are recessions.
What it is

Credit to the private non-financial sector as a share of GDP, minus its long-run trend.

Threshold source: Basel Committee guidance. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

The gap has been deeply negative since the 2008 deleveraging and says little about current risk.