A broad, sustained decline in economic activity
A significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months; dated after the fact by committees such as the NBER.
The popular definition is two consecutive quarters of falling GDP. The NBER, which dates US recessions, uses a broader judgement of depth, diffusion and duration across employment, income, production and sales. Its dates are the shaded bands on the US charts; the CEPR dates the euro area the same way, and the UK and Japan bands follow their national conventions.
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- 10y–3m spread, AAA curve Eurozone +0.80 pp Normal
- Economic Sentiment Indicator Eurozone 96.9 Normal
- Unemployment rate Eurozone 6.5 % Normal
- 10y gilt minus Bank Rate United Kingdom +1.56 pp Normal
- M4 money, y/y United Kingdom +3.9 % Normal
- CFNAI, 3-month average United States +0.03 Normal
- Initial claims, 4-week average United States 197k Normal
- 10y–3m spread United States +0.78 pp Normal
- Sahm rule United States 0.00 pp Normal