The Sahm rule compares the three-month average unemployment rate with its lowest point in the previous twelve months. A rise of 0.50 percentage points or more has coincided with the start of every US recession since 1960. Read from the real-time series, it has touched the line once without a recession, in November 1976, and crossed it once, in 2024. It is a coincident trigger, not a forecast: when it fires, the recession has usually already begun.
Threshold source: Sahm (2019), Brookings Institution. How thresholds are chosen
Every crossing in the record, including the ones that did not work.
| Crossed | Recession start | Lead or lag | False positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2024 | None | — | Yes — peaked at 0.57 in August, then reversed |
| Apr 2020 | Feb 2020 | 2 months late | No |
| Feb 2008 | Dec 2007 | 2 months late | No |
| Jun 2001 | Mar 2001 | 3 months late | No |
| Nov 1990 | Jul 1990 | 4 months late | No |
| Nov 1981 | Jul 1981 | 4 months late | No |
| Apr 1980 | Jan 1980 | 3 months late | No |
| Nov 1976 | None | — | Yes — exactly 0.50 for one month, then fell back |
| Mar 1974 | Nov 1973 | 4 months late | No |
| Oct 1969 | Dec 1969 | 2 months early | No |
| Aug 1960 | Apr 1960 | 4 months late | No |
Sensitive to labour-supply shocks, such as immigration and participation, as in 2024, when it crossed and reversed without a recession. Does not apply outside the United States without recalibration, so the labour trigger uses a different series in every other region.