worldstat.us · Region
United States
14 of 15 series current
38% of world GDP
18 Sep 2026
83 /100
Green · expansion
96 Structurallow risk 78 Cycleexpanding 80 Stresscalm
Score, five years, with regime bands
Derived series · not a market price
Expansion: score 65 to 100EXPANSIONLate cycle: score 50 to 65LATE CYCLESlowdown: score 35 to 50SLOWDOWNContraction: score 0 to 35CONTRACTION20222023202420252026

Green because cycle is expanding: 10y–3m spread +0.82 pp, 0.82 pp above; CFNAI, 3-month average −0.04, 0.66 above. Structural is low risk: the credit gap is −11.3 pp.

Output, for context only
+1.5 % Real GDP, q/q annualised, Q2 2026+5.1 % GDPNow, current quarter, Q3 2026
Indicators · sorted by contribution, most negative first
Every row opens the indicator, its history and its track record.
IndicatorLatestThresholdDistance3-mo trendStatusAs of
OFR Financial Stress Index −2.2 > 0 returned 31 Mar Rising Post-trigger 15 Sep
10y–3m spread +0.82 pp < 0 for 3 months 0.82 pp above Steepening Normal 17 Sep
CFNAI, 3-month average −0.04 < −0.70 0.66 above Falling Normal Jul 2026
OECD composite leading indicator 101.0 < 100 and falling 1.0 above Rising Normal Aug 2026
Core CPI, y/y 2.4 % > 3.5 % 1.1 pp below Falling Normal Aug 2026
Initial claims, 4-week average 203k > 12-month low + 15 % 26k below Falling Normal 12 Sep
Regional Fed surveys, average +22.7 < 0 for 2 months 22.7 above Rising Normal Sep 2026
Sahm rule −0.07 pp ≥ 0.50 pp 0.57 pp below Falling Normal Aug 2026
Broad dollar index, y/y −1.5 % > +5 % y/y 6.5 pp below Falling Normal 11 Sep
Debt service ratio, private sector 13.8 % > 10-yr mean + 1 pp 1.7 pp below Falling Normal Q1 2026
Credit-to-GDP gap −11.3 pp > 10 pp 21.3 pp below Flat Normal Q1 2026
Exports, y/y — < 0 for 2 months — — No data —
Fed funds target, upper bound 4.00 % — Tightening Context 17 Sep

Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.