The United States is green. The stress layer, its weakest, is calm; holding it back are the OFR Financial Stress Index at −1.8 below zero and the broad dollar index year on year at +0.3 %, 4.7 pp below its trigger. The structural layer is low risk, with the credit gap at −11.3 pp.
| Indicator | Latest | Threshold | Distance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real policy rate | +1.43 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp, and rising | above threshold since Sep 2026 | Triggered |
| House prices, y/y | +1.2 % | < 0 for 2 quarters | 1.2 pp above | Watch |
| OFR Financial Stress Index | −1.8 | > 0 for 5 days | 1.8 below | Normal |
| 10y–3m spread | +0.78 pp | < 0 for 3 months | 0.78 pp above | Normal |
| Core CPI, y/y | 2.6 % | > 3.5 % | 0.9 pp below | Normal |
| OECD composite leading indicator | 101.0 | < 100 and falling | 1.0 above | Normal |
| Credit-to-GDP gap | −11.3 pp | > 10 pp | 21.3 pp below | Normal |
| Debt service ratio, private sector | 13.8 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp | 1.7 pp below | Normal |
| Broad dollar index, y/y | +0.3 % | > +5 % y/y | 4.7 pp below | Normal |
| CFNAI, 3-month average | +0.03 | < −0.70 | 0.73 above | Normal |
| Sahm rule | 0.00 pp | ≥ 0.50 pp | 0.50 pp below | Normal |
| Regional Fed surveys, average | +23.2 | < 0 for 2 months | 23.2 above | Normal |
| Initial claims, 4-week average | 197k | > 12-month low + 15 % | 30k below | Normal |
| Exports, y/y | +14.8 % | < 0 for 2 months | 14.8 pp above | Normal |
| Fed funds target, upper bound | 4.00 % | — | Context | |
| Government debt, % of GDP | 110.8 % | — | Context |
Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.