The OECD's amplitude-adjusted leading indicator, built from series that historically turn six to nine months before GDP. Below 100 the economy is expected to grow under trend; falling means the gap is widening.

Threshold source: OECD: 100 is the long-term trend; below and falling signals a downturn ahead. How thresholds are chosen

Revised heavily for several months after first publication, and its components differ by country, so cross-country comparison is of direction, not level.