Leading, coincident and lagging indicators
A leading indicator turns before the economy does, a coincident one at the same time, a lagging one afterwards.
Order books, permits and the yield curve tend to turn months before output does, so they lead. Employment, industrial production and the Sahm rule move with the cycle, so they are coincident. Unemployment duration and inflation typically keep moving after the turn, so they lag.
worldstat.us mixes all three on purpose: the leading ones warn, the coincident ones confirm, and the Post-trigger state keeps a signal visible after the leading series has already turned back.
On this site
- OECD composite leading indicator China 97.4 Triggered
- OECD composite leading indicator Eurozone 100.9 Normal
- Loans to firms, y/y Eurozone +4.2 % Normal
- OECD composite leading indicator India 102.0 Normal
- OECD composite leading indicator Japan 100.3 Watch
- OECD composite leading indicator United Kingdom 101.4 Normal
- OECD composite leading indicator United States 101.0 Normal
- Real GDP, q/q annualised United States +3.4 % Context
- Sahm rule United States 0.00 pp Normal
Related terms
Sahm rule · threshold · yield curve