Proxy: the OECD's current leading-indicator dataflow has no euro-area reference area (checked September 2026). This is the OECD's own four-economy aggregate of Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
The OECD's amplitude-adjusted leading indicator for the four largest euro-area economies, which together are three quarters of euro-area GDP. Read the same way as the US series: 100 is trend growth, and below 100 and falling the gap to trend is widening.
Threshold source: OECD: 100 is the long-term trend. How thresholds are chosen
A proxy, not the euro area. Revised for several months after first publication.