The euro area is green. The cycle layer, its weakest, is expanding; holding it back are the real policy rate at 0.00 %, above trend since June 2026, and the core HICP year on year at 2.5 %, 0.5 pp below its trigger. The structural layer is low risk, with the credit gap at −17.1 pp. One of the eight cycle series is triggered.
| Indicator | Latest | Threshold | Distance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real policy rate | 0.00 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp, and rising | above threshold since Jun 2026 | Triggered |
| Core HICP, y/y | 2.5 % | > 3.0 % | 0.5 pp below | Normal |
| Unemployment rate | 6.5 % | > 12-month low + 0.5 pp | 0.3 pp below | Normal |
| 10y–3m spread, AAA curve | +0.80 pp | < 0 for 3 months | 0.80 pp above | Normal |
| OECD composite leading indicator * | 100.9 | < 100 and falling | 0.9 above | Normal |
| House prices, y/y | +4.0 % | < 0 for 2 quarters | 4.0 pp above | Normal |
| Credit-to-GDP gap | −17.1 pp | > 10 pp | 27.1 pp below | Normal |
| Debt service ratio, four largest economies * | 13.6 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp | 1.4 pp below | Normal |
| CISS systemic stress | 0.01 | > 0.30 | 0.29 below | Normal |
| Economic Sentiment Indicator | 96.9 | < 90 for 2 months | 6.9 above | Normal |
| Loans to firms, y/y | +4.2 % | < 0 | 4.2 pp above | Normal |
| ECB deposit facility rate | 2.50 % | — | Context | |
| Government debt, % of GDP | 85.6 % | — | Context |
Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.