Eurozone · Stress layer · Indicator

CISS systemic stress

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
0.01 index
Normal 0.29 below the 0.30 trigger · flat
As of 29 Oct 2026 · Threshold > 0.30
Recession, Jan 1980 to Sep 1982Recession, Jan 1992 to Sep 1993Recession, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jul 2011 to Mar 2013Recession, Oct 2019 to Jun 20200.00.20.40.60.81.0Threshold > 0.30Trigger > 0.301990200020102020
1980 to 2026 · index. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Euro-area bands follow the CEPR quarterly dating from the peak quarter.
What it is

The ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress aggregates fifteen stress measures from five segments, the money, bond, equity and foreign-exchange markets and financial intermediaries, weighted by their correlation. Zero is no stress, one is stress everywhere at once.

Threshold source: Holló, Kremer and Lo Duca (2012), ECB: readings above 0.3 have marked systemic episodes. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Correlation weighting means it can stay low while one market is in trouble alone.