The European Commission's composite of business and consumer surveys across industry, services, retail, construction and households, scaled to a long-run mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The line is 90, one standard deviation below the mean: since 1985 it has been crossed for two months running in 1992, 2008, 2012 and 2020, each a CEPR-dated recession, and at no other time. Until September 2026 the line was 100, the Commission's own average; the indicator had sat below it since July 2022 with no recession, so that line marked an economy that was merely worse than usual, not one turning down.
Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: one standard deviation below the indicator's long-run mean of 100, held for two months. Against the CEPR chronology from 1985 the line has been crossed four times, once in each recession, and never otherwise. How thresholds are chosen
Every crossing in the record, including the ones that did not work.
| Crossed | Recession start | Lead or lag | False positive |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2020 | Q4 2019 | 7 months late | No |
| Jun 2012 | Q3 2011 | 11 months late | No |
| Sep 2008 | Q1 2008 | 8 months late | No |
| May 1992 | Q1 1992 | 4 months late | No |
Sentiment over-reacts to headlines, so a single month below the line is possible outside recessions; the threshold needs two in a row. At 90 the rule confirms rather than leads: the crossings came four to eleven months after the CEPR-dated peaks.