The European Commission's composite of business and consumer surveys across industry, services, retail, construction and households. Its long-run average is 100; readings below it mean sentiment is worse than usual.

Threshold source: European Commission: 100 is the long-term average of the indicator. How thresholds are chosen

Sentiment leads activity by a few months at best and over-reacts to headlines, so a single month below 100 is common outside recessions.