Eurozone · Cycle layer · Indicator

Core HICP, y/y

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC
2.5 %
Normal 0.5 pp below the 3.0 % trigger · rising
As of Sep 2026 · Threshold > 3.0 %
Recession, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jul 2011 to Mar 2013Recession, Oct 2019 to Jun 20200123456Threshold > 3.0 %Trigger > 3.0 %20052010201520202025
2000 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Euro-area bands follow the CEPR quarterly dating from the peak quarter.
What it is

Harmonised consumer prices excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, as a change over twelve months. The ECB's preferred gauge of underlying inflation.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: one point above the ECB's 2 % target. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Eurostat's flash estimate is revised two weeks later; the series here is the final print, so it is a fortnight behind the headline.