Credit-to-GDP gap
Fetched 18 Sep 2026, 10:17 UTC
−17.1 pp
Normal 27.1 pp below the +10.0 pp trigger · rising
As of Q1 2026 · Threshold > 10 pp
Recession, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jul 2011 to Mar 2013Recession, Oct 2019 to Jun 2020−20−15−10−50510Threshold > 10 ppTrigger > 10 pp201020122014201620182020202220242026
2009 to 2026 · percentage points. Shaded bands are recessions.
What it is

Credit to the private non-financial sector as a share of GDP, minus its long-run trend, for the euro area as a whole.

Threshold source: Basel Committee guidance. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

An aggregate of very different national credit cycles; the trend filter is revised as new quarters arrive.