Eurozone · Cycle layer · Indicator

House prices, y/y

Fetched 20 Sep 2026, 00:05 UTC
+4.7 %
Normal 4.7 pp above zero · falling
As of Q1 2026 · Threshold < 0 for 2 quarters
Recession, Jan 1980 to Sep 1982Recession, Jan 1992 to Sep 1993Recession, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jul 2011 to Mar 2013Recession, Oct 2019 to Jun 2020−505101520Threshold < 0 for 2 quartersTrigger < 0 for 2 quarters19801990200020102020
1976 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Euro-area bands follow the CEPR quarterly dating from the peak quarter.
What it is

Nominal residential property prices, all dwellings, as a change over four quarters, from the BIS's selected series, which restate Eurostat's euro-area house price index on a common base. Housing is the largest asset households own and the collateral behind most private credit, so a year-on-year fall in prices marks the point at which a slowdown reaches balance sheets. The series was added in September 2026 after an outside review.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: nominal house prices below a year earlier for two quarters in a row, the pattern of 2008 in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area and of China from 2022. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Quarterly and one to two quarters behind. An aggregate of very different national markets: Germany fell from 2022 while Spain rose.