worldstat.us · Eurozone · Cycle layer · Indicator
10y–3m spread, AAA curve
Fetched 18 Sep 2026, 09:59 UTC
+1.02 pp
Normal 1.02 pp above the 0.00 pp trigger · steepening
As of 16 Sep 2026 · Threshold < 0 for 3 months
Recession, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jul 2011 to Mar 2013Recession, Oct 2019 to Jun 2020−2−10123Threshold < 0 for 3 monthsTrigger < 0 for 3 months20052010201520202025
2004 to 2026 · percentage points. Shaded bands are recessions.
What it is

The ten-year minus three-month spot rate on the ECB's yield curve fitted to AAA-rated euro-area government bonds. Inversion sustained over a quarter has preceded the euro-area recessions of 2008 and 2011.

Threshold source: Estrella and Mishkin (1996), applied to the ECB's AAA-rated spot curve. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Two recessions is a short record. The AAA curve is dominated by Germany; peripheral spreads carry the stress that this series does not see.