Eurozone · Cycle layer · Indicator

Loans to firms, y/y

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
+4.2 %
Normal 4.2 pp above zero · rising
As of Sep 2026 · Threshold < 0
Recession, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Jul 2011 to Mar 2013Recession, Oct 2019 to Jun 2020051015Threshold < 0Trigger < 020052010201520202025
2004 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Euro-area bands follow the CEPR quarterly dating from the peak quarter.
What it is

Annual growth of bank loans to euro-area non-financial corporations, adjusted for sales and securitisation. Credit to firms tracks investment: growth turned negative after 2008 and again in 2013, but rose through 2020. The zero line is a worldstat.us construction, not a tested rule.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: loans to firms below their level of a year earlier. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Loan growth is a coincident series and is distorted by large one-off securitisations even after adjustment.