The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the euro area. The threshold follows the Sahm rule loosely: the monthly rate, not a three-month average, half a point above its low of the past twelve months. It crossed six to ten months after the CEPR-dated peaks of 2008, 2011 and 2020, and rose about half a point in 2002 and 2003 with no recession.
Threshold source: worldstat.us construction after the Sahm rule: the monthly rate against its twelve-month low. How thresholds are chosen
The euro-area rate moves slowly because short-time work schemes absorb shocks before they reach unemployment, so it lags the cycle by more than the US rate does.