Debt service ratio, private sector

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
13.8 %
Normal 1.7 pp below the 15.5 % trigger · falling
As of Q1 2026 · Threshold > 10-yr mean + 1 pp
Recession, Mar 2001 to Nov 2001Recession, Dec 2007 to Jun 2009Recession, Feb 2020 to Apr 20201415161718Threshold > 10-yr mean + 1 ppTrigger > 10-yr mean + 1 pp200020052010201520202025
1999 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are NBER recessions, peak to trough.
What it is

Interest payments plus amortisation of the private non-financial sector as a share of income. It measures how much of income goes to servicing debt at current rates.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction after Drehmann and Juselius (2012), BIS, who found the DSR well above its long-run average before banking crises; one point is far tighter than the deviations they report. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Assumes a standard maturity for all debt, so it moves with rates faster than actual household payments do.