United States · Stress layer · Indicator

Broad dollar index, y/y

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC
+0.3 %
Normal 4.7 pp below the +5.0 % trigger · falling
As of 23 Oct 2026 · Threshold > +5 % y/y
Recession, Dec 2007 to Jun 2009Recession, Feb 2020 to Apr 2020−1001020Threshold > +5 % y/yTrigger > +5 % y/y2010201520202025
2007 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are NBER recessions, peak to trough.
What it is

The Federal Reserve's trade-weighted dollar index against a broad group of trading partners, as a change over twelve months. A sharply stronger dollar is a stress signal for emerging markets and commodity producers.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: a dollar rising more than 5 % in a year tightens conditions for dollar borrowers abroad. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Direction matters more than level, and a strong dollar can reflect US strength rather than global stress.