worldstat.us · United States · Stress layer · Indicator
Broad dollar index, y/y
Fetched 18 Sep 2026, 10:19 UTC
−1.5 %
Normal 6.5 pp below the +5.0 % trigger · falling
As of 11 Sep 2026 · Threshold > +5 % y/y
Recession, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Mar 2020 to Apr 2020−1001020Threshold > +5 % y/yTrigger > +5 % y/y2010201520202025
2007 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.
What it is

The Federal Reserve's trade-weighted dollar index against a broad group of trading partners, as a change over twelve months. A sharply stronger dollar is a stress signal for emerging markets and commodity producers.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: a dollar rising more than 5 % in a year tightens conditions for dollar borrowers abroad. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Direction matters more than level, and a strong dollar can reflect US strength rather than global stress.