Nominal residential property prices, all dwellings, as a change over four quarters, from the BIS's selected series, which restate the FHFA all-transactions index on a common base. Housing is the largest asset households own and the collateral behind most private credit, so a year-on-year fall in prices marks the point at which a slowdown reaches balance sheets. The series was added in September 2026 after an outside review.
Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: nominal house prices below a year earlier for two quarters in a row, the pattern of 2008 in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area and of China from 2022. How thresholds are chosen
Quarterly and one to two quarters behind. Prices fell year on year from 2007 to 2011 and briefly in 2023; the 2023 dip reversed within two quarters and did not trigger.