United States · Stress layer · Indicator

OFR Financial Stress Index

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC
−1.8 index
Normal 1.8 below zero · rising
As of 28 Oct 2026 · Threshold > 0 for 5 days
Recession, Mar 2001 to Nov 2001Recession, Dec 2007 to Jun 2009Recession, Feb 2020 to Apr 2020−50510152025Threshold > 0 for 5 daysTrigger > 0 for 5 days20052010201520202025
2000 to 2026 · index. Shaded bands are NBER recessions, peak to trough.
What it is

A daily index of 33 market variables covering credit spreads, equity valuations, safe-asset demand, funding and volatility. Zero is average stress since 2000; readings above zero mean markets are pricing more stress than usual.

Threshold source: OFR: zero is average stress over the sample; positive values are above-average stress. The five-day persistence is a worldstat.us construction. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Market-based, so it measures how markets feel rather than how the economy is, and it spikes on single days of volatility, so the threshold needs five days above zero.