worldstat.us · United States · Cycle layer · Indicator
Core CPI, y/y
Fetched 18 Sep 2026, 08:41 UTC
2.4 %
Normal 1.1 pp below the 3.5 % trigger · falling
As of Aug 2026 · Threshold > 3.5 %
Recession, Sep 1957 to Apr 1958Recession, May 1960 to Feb 1961Recession, Jan 1970 to Nov 1970Recession, Dec 1973 to Mar 1975Recession, Feb 1980 to Jul 1980Recession, Aug 1981 to Nov 1982Recession, Aug 1990 to Mar 1991Recession, Apr 2001 to Nov 2001Recession, Jan 2008 to Jun 2009Recession, Mar 2020 to Apr 202002468101214Threshold > 3.5 %Trigger > 3.5 %1960197019801990200020102020
1958 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.
What it is

Consumer prices excluding food and energy, as a percentage change over twelve months. It is the inflation measure the Federal Reserve watches most for persistence.

Threshold source: Federal Reserve target of 2 % on PCE; 3.5 % on CPI is the level at which policy has historically stayed restrictive. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Shelter is a third of the index and lags market rents by a year, so core CPI overstates inflation late in a disinflation and understates it early in one.