worldstat.us
United States · Cycle layer · Indicator

Core CPI, y/y

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC
2.6 %
Normal 0.9 pp below the 3.5 % trigger · flat
As of Sep 2026 · Threshold > 3.5 %
Recession, Aug 1957 to Apr 1958Recession, Apr 1960 to Feb 1961Recession, Dec 1969 to Nov 1970Recession, Nov 1973 to Mar 1975Recession, Jan 1980 to Jul 1980Recession, Jul 1981 to Nov 1982Recession, Jul 1990 to Mar 1991Recession, Mar 2001 to Nov 2001Recession, Dec 2007 to Jun 2009Recession, Feb 2020 to Apr 202002468101214Threshold > 3.5 %Trigger > 3.5 %1960197019801990200020102020
1958 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are NBER recessions, peak to trough.
What it is

Consumer prices excluding food and energy, as a percentage change over twelve months. The Federal Reserve targets PCE inflation; CPI is published earlier and is the more widely reported gauge.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: the Federal Reserve targets 2 % on PCE inflation, and core CPI runs above core PCE; 3.5 % is well clear of both. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Shelter is about a third of the headline index and over 40 % of core, and lags market rents by a year, so core CPI overstates inflation late in a disinflation and understates it early in one.