United States · Cycle layer · Indicator

Exports, y/y

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC
+14.8 %
Normal 14.8 pp above zero · falling
As of Aug 2026 · Threshold < 0 for 2 months
Recession, Aug 1957 to Apr 1958Recession, Apr 1960 to Feb 1961Recession, Dec 1969 to Nov 1970Recession, Nov 1973 to Mar 1975Recession, Jan 1980 to Jul 1980Recession, Jul 1981 to Nov 1982Recession, Jul 1990 to Mar 1991Recession, Mar 2001 to Nov 2001Recession, Dec 2007 to Jun 2009Recession, Feb 2020 to Apr 2020−40−20020406080100Threshold < 0 for 2 monthsTrigger < 0 for 2 months1960197019801990200020102020
1956 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are NBER recessions, peak to trough.
What it is

The value of goods exports in US dollars, as a change over twelve months.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: two months of falling export values, a plain sign that external demand has turned; it also fires on price and currency swings. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Nominal, so oil and commodity prices move it as much as volumes. Two months' lag.