Goods exports as an early read on global demand
A region's goods exports, year on year in dollars; two months of falling exports have accompanied every global trade downturn since the 1970s.
Trade responds to demand faster than domestic output does: an order cancelled in one country shows up in another's export figures within weeks, and customs data are published within a month. Goods exports fell in every global recession in the record, usually before industrial production did, and by far more, which is why exporters such as Korea, Japan and Germany are watched as bellwethers for the world cycle. The World Trade Organization's Goods Trade Barometer and the CPB's World Trade Monitor track the same signal at the global level.
The rule on worldstat.us: goods exports in US dollars below their level of a year earlier for two consecutive months. Dollar values are used because they are comparable across regions and available monthly from customs offices via the OECD; the cost is that a weaker currency lowers the figure even when volumes hold, and that oil and commodity prices move it as much as volumes do. The euro area's series on FRED stopped in 2023, so its cell is empty.