Japan · Cycle layer · Indicator

Exports, y/y

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC
+12.8 %
Normal 12.8 pp above zero · rising
As of Aug 2026 · Threshold < 0 for 2 months
Recession, Jun 1957 to Jun 1958Recession, Dec 1961 to Oct 1962Recession, Oct 1964 to Oct 1965Recession, Jul 1970 to Dec 1971Recession, Nov 1973 to Mar 1975Recession, Jan 1977 to Oct 1977Recession, Feb 1980 to Feb 1983Recession, Jun 1985 to Nov 1986Recession, Feb 1991 to Oct 1993Recession, May 1997 to Jan 1999Recession, Nov 2000 to Jan 2002Recession, Feb 2008 to Mar 2009Recession, Mar 2012 to Nov 2012Recession, Oct 2018 to May 2020−40−200204060Threshold < 0 for 2 monthsTrigger < 0 for 2 months1960197019801990200020102020
1958 to 2026 · percent. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Japan's bands are the Cabinet Office reference dates from the peak month.
What it is

The value of goods exports in US dollars, as a change over twelve months. Japan's exports are a bellwether for capital goods demand in Asia and the United States.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: two months of falling export values, a plain sign that external demand has turned; it also fires on price and currency swings. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Valued in dollars, so a weaker yen lowers the figure even when volumes hold. Two months' lag.