India · Cycle layer · Indicator

Real policy rate

+0.68 %
Normal
As of Jul 2026
−101234202420252026
2023 to 2026 · percent
What it is

The policy rate minus headline CPI inflation over the past year, read at the end of each month: how hard monetary policy is braking. The threshold is the series' own ten-year mean plus one point, so each region has a baseline that fits its history and nothing is estimated. It triggers only while the policy rate is also higher than six months earlier; above the level with rates on hold or falling it is on Watch.

Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: the real rate a point above its ten-year mean while the policy rate is higher than six months earlier. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

A worldstat.us rule with no published track record. The ten-year mean includes the zero-rate years, which lowers the baseline everywhere. India publishes no core measure the site can read, so headline inflation, swung by food, stands in. The repo rate history begins in 2023, so the ten-year mean cannot yet be formed and the series carries no threshold until it can.