India is green. The structural layer, its weakest, is elevated; holding it back are the private-sector debt service ratio at 12.50 %, above trend since Q1 2026, and the credit-to-GDP gap at +4.3 pp, 5.7 pp below its trigger. The cycle layer is expanding. One of the two structural series is triggered.
| Indicator | Latest | Threshold | Distance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service ratio, private sector | 12.50 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp | above threshold since Q1 2026 | Triggered |
| Headline CPI, y/y * | 5.0 % | > 5.5 % | 0.5 pp below | Normal |
| Credit-to-GDP gap | +4.3 pp | > 10 pp | 5.7 pp below | Normal |
| House prices, y/y | +3.6 % | < 0 for 2 quarters | 3.6 pp above | Normal |
| 10y yield minus repo rate * | +1.81 pp | < 0 for 3 months | 1.81 pp above | Normal |
| OECD composite leading indicator | 102.0 | < 100 and falling | 2.0 above | Normal |
| Exports, y/y | +26.1 % | < 0 for 2 months | returned Apr 2026 | Post-trigger |
| Policy repo rate | 5.50 % | — | Context | |
| Real policy rate | +0.29 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp, and rising | threshold not yet formed | Context |
Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.