Nominal residential property prices, all dwellings, as a change over four quarters, from the BIS's selected series, which restate the NBS seventy-city survey of new residential buildings on a common base. Housing is the largest asset households own and the collateral behind most private credit, so a year-on-year fall in prices marks the point at which a slowdown reaches balance sheets. The series was added in September 2026 after an outside review.
Threshold source: worldstat.us construction: nominal house prices below a year earlier for two quarters in a row, the pattern of 2008 in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area and of China from 2022. How thresholds are chosen
Quarterly and one to two quarters behind. Nominal prices have fallen year on year every quarter since Q1 2022, by 8.6 % at the worst in late 2024, the longest fall in the record; the trigger has been on since Q2 2022.