worldstat.us · Region
China
5 of 8 series current
24% of world GDP
18 Sep 2026
53 /100
Amber · late cycle
69 Structurallow risk 45 Cycleslowing — Stressno data
Score, five years, with regime bands
Derived series · not a market price
Expansion: score 65 to 100EXPANSIONLate cycle: score 50 to 65LATE CYCLESlowdown: score 35 to 50SLOWDOWNContraction: score 0 to 35CONTRACTION20222023202420252026

Amber because cycle is slowing: OECD composite leading indicator 98.1, crossed Sep 2025; 10y–1y government bond spread +0.47 pp, 0.47 pp above. Structural is low risk: the credit gap is −5.1 pp. 1 of 6 cycle series triggered.

Indicators · sorted by contribution, most negative first
Every row opens the indicator, its history and its track record.
IndicatorLatestThresholdDistance3-mo trendStatusAs of
OECD composite leading indicator 98.1 < 100 and falling crossed Sep 2025 Falling Triggered Aug 2026
Debt service ratio, private sector 19.1 % > 10-yr mean + 1 pp crossed Q1 2025 Rising Triggered Q1 2026
10y–1y government bond spread * +0.47 pp < 0 for 3 months 0.47 pp above — Watch 18 Sep
Headline CPI, y/y 0.8 % < 0 0.8 pp above Falling Normal Aug 2026
Credit-to-GDP gap −5.1 pp > 10 pp 15.1 pp below Rising Normal Q1 2026
Core CPI, y/y — < 0.5 % — — No data —
NBS manufacturing PMI — < 50 — — No data —
Exports, y/y — < 0 for 2 months — — No data —

Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.