China is amber. The cycle layer, its weakest, is slowing; holding it back are the OECD composite leading indicator at 97.4, below 100 since November 2025, and the house prices year on year at −5.9 %, below zero since Q1 2022. The structural layer is elevated on balance, with the credit gap at −5.1 pp, though the private-sector debt service ratio is triggered. Two of the nine cycle series are triggered.
| Indicator | Latest | Threshold | Distance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OECD composite leading indicator | 97.4 | < 100 and falling | below threshold since Nov 2025 | Triggered |
| House prices, y/y | −5.9 % | < 0 for 2 quarters | below threshold since Q1 2022 | Triggered |
| Debt service ratio, private sector | 19.1 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp | above threshold since Q1 2025 | Triggered |
| NBS manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | < 50 | returned Sep 2026 | Post-trigger |
| NBS non-manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | < 50 | returned Sep 2026 | Post-trigger |
| Core CPI, y/y | 1.0 % | < 0.5 % | 0.5 pp above | Normal |
| Urban surveyed unemployment rate | 5.2 % | > 12-month low + 0.5 pp | 0.3 pp below | Normal |
| Headline CPI, y/y | 0.9 % | < 0 | 0.9 pp above | Normal |
| Credit-to-GDP gap | −5.1 pp | > 10 pp | 15.1 pp below | Normal |
| Exports, y/y | +24.9 % | < 0 for 2 months | 24.9 pp above | Normal |
| 10y–3m spread * | +0.20 pp | — | Context | |
| Producer prices, y/y | +5.0 % | — | Context | |
| Credit to the private sector, y/y | +5.2 % | — | Context | |
| Loan prime rate, 1-year * | 3.00 % | — | Context | |
| Real policy rate | +2.00 % | > 10-yr mean + 1 pp, and rising | threshold not yet formed | Context |
| Government debt, % of GDP | 101.1 % | — | Context |
Scores are worldstat.us constructions. Latest values are as published by the source and may be revised. * marks a series with a note on its page about the source or the proxy used.