Credit-to-GDP gap
Fetched 18 Sep 2026, 10:17 UTC
−5.1 pp
Normal 15.1 pp below the +10.0 pp trigger · rising
As of Q1 2026 · Threshold > 10 pp
−1001020Threshold > 10 ppTrigger > 10 pp200020052010201520202025
1995 to 2026 · percentage points
What it is

Credit to the private non-financial sector as a share of GDP, minus its long-run trend. China's gap exceeded 25 points in 2016, the highest of any large economy in the BIS record.

Threshold source: Basel Committee guidance. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Shadow-banking credit is only partly captured. The trend filter is revised as new quarters arrive.