Japan · Cycle layer · Indicator

10y–2y JGB spread

Fetched 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC
+0.94 pp
Normal 0.94 pp above zero · flattening

Two-year yield as the short end: the Ministry of Finance's daily table starts at one year.

As of 30 Oct 2026 · Threshold < 0 for 3 months
Recession, Jun 1985 to Nov 1986Recession, Feb 1991 to Oct 1993Recession, May 1997 to Jan 1999Recession, Nov 2000 to Jan 2002Recession, Feb 2008 to Mar 2009Recession, Mar 2012 to Nov 2012Recession, Oct 2018 to May 2020012Threshold < 0 for 3 monthsTrigger < 0 for 3 months19901995200020052010201520202025
1986 to 2026 · percentage points. Shaded bands are recessions.* *Japan's bands are the Cabinet Office reference dates from the peak month.
What it is

The ten-year minus two-year Japanese government bond yield from the Ministry of Finance's daily reference table.

Threshold source: Yield-curve rule with the two-year as the short end; the Ministry of Finance publishes no three-month yield. How thresholds are chosen

Known weaknesses

Decades of yield-curve control make the historical record of this spread a poor guide to what an inversion would mean now.