Economic Sentiment Indicator
The European Commission's composite of business and consumer surveys; 100 is its long-run average.
The Economic Sentiment Indicator weights survey balances from industry (40 %), services (30 %), consumers (20 %), retail (5 %) and construction (5 %). It is scaled so that its long-run mean is 100 with a standard deviation of 10. Readings below 100 mean sentiment is worse than usual.
The line on worldstat.us is 90, one standard deviation below the mean, held for two months. Tested against the CEPR chronology from 1985 it has been crossed in 1992, 2008, 2012 and 2020, each a recession, and at no other time. Until September 2026 the line was 100, which the indicator had sat below since July 2022 with no recession: worse than usual is not the same as turning down.
On this site
- Economic Sentiment Indicator Eurozone 96.9 Normal