false positive

18 Sep 2026

A signal that fired without the event following

A crossing that was not followed by a recession, shown in the track record rather than hidden.

Every recession rule has fired at least once without a recession following. The Sahm rule's August 2024 crossing is the best-known recent example. worldstat.us prints the full track record of each rule, false positives included, because a rule's usefulness depends on both its hits and its misses.

Related terms

Sahm rule · recession

All terms