{
 "id": "us-realrate",
 "name": "Real policy rate",
 "region": "us",
 "layer": "cycle",
 "unit": "%",
 "cadence": "monthly",
 "state": "watch",
 "qualifier": "crossed, with the policy rate no higher than 6 months ago",
 "threshold": {
  "label": "\u003e 10-yr mean + 1 pp, and rising",
  "op": "gt",
  "value": 0.417635
 },
 "distance": -0.886201,
 "score": 27.8,
 "latest": {
  "period": "2026-08-01",
  "value": 1.303837
 },
 "stale": false,
 "trend": "tightening",
 "publisher": "worldstat.us, from the two series below",
 "series_code": "us-fedfunds minus us-corecpi",
 "licence": "Derived from the component series; see their licences",
 "description": "The policy rate minus core CPI inflation over the past year, read at the end of each month: how hard monetary policy is braking. The threshold is the series' own ten-year mean plus one point, so each region has a baseline that fits its history and nothing is estimated. It triggers only while the policy rate is also higher than six months earlier; above the level with rates on hold or falling it is on Watch.",
 "points": [
  {
   "period": "2008-12-01",
   "value": -1.51246
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-01-01",
   "value": -1.42235
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-02-01",
   "value": -1.550981
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-03-01",
   "value": -1.537613
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-04-01",
   "value": -1.682327
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-05-01",
   "value": -1.596131
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-06-01",
   "value": -1.461973
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-07-01",
   "value": -1.277099
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-08-01",
   "value": -1.183965
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-09-01",
   "value": -1.229837
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-10-01",
   "value": -1.462733
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-11-01",
   "value": -1.464244
  },
  {
   "period": "2009-12-01",
   "value": -1.573672
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-01-01",
   "value": -1.262335
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-02-01",
   "value": -1.099453
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-03-01",
   "value": -0.909205
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-04-01",
   "value": -0.717509
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-05-01",
   "value": -0.690138
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-06-01",
   "value": -0.700199
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-07-01",
   "value": -0.707754
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-08-01",
   "value": -0.667101
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-09-01",
   "value": -0.564387
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-10-01",
   "value": -0.352718
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-11-01",
   "value": -0.422056
  },
  {
   "period": "2010-12-01",
   "value": -0.411895
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-01-01",
   "value": -0.733534
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-02-01",
   "value": -0.874446
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-03-01",
   "value": -0.959785
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-04-01",
   "value": -1.065539
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-05-01",
   "value": -1.204096
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-06-01",
   "value": -1.333678
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-07-01",
   "value": -1.491483
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-08-01",
   "value": -1.715157
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-09-01",
   "value": -1.737723
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-10-01",
   "value": -1.85792
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-11-01",
   "value": -1.888205
  },
  {
   "period": "2011-12-01",
   "value": -2.026663
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-01-01",
   "value": -2.027348
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-02-01",
   "value": -1.90982
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-03-01",
   "value": -1.998337
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-04-01",
   "value": -2.064428
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-05-01",
   "value": -2.002258
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-06-01",
   "value": -1.942286
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-07-01",
   "value": -1.859956
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-08-01",
   "value": -1.685252
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-09-01",
   "value": -1.758243
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-10-01",
   "value": -1.744649
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-11-01",
   "value": -1.702851
  },
  {
   "period": "2012-12-01",
   "value": -1.649694
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-01-01",
   "value": -1.659802
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-02-01",
   "value": -1.738739
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-03-01",
   "value": -1.639022
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-04-01",
   "value": -1.465559
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-05-01",
   "value": -1.395552
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-06-01",
   "value": -1.373095
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-07-01",
   "value": -1.450222
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-08-01",
   "value": -1.532108
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-09-01",
   "value": -1.501937
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-10-01",
   "value": -1.436838
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-11-01",
   "value": -1.491668
  },
  {
   "period": "2013-12-01",
   "value": -1.490857
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-01-01",
   "value": -1.357034
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-02-01",
   "value": -1.304807
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-03-01",
   "value": -1.395661
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-04-01",
   "value": -1.571056
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-05-01",
   "value": -1.695527
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-06-01",
   "value": -1.672863
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-07-01",
   "value": -1.594963
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-08-01",
   "value": -1.486396
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-09-01",
   "value": -1.490946
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-10-01",
   "value": -1.567632
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-11-01",
   "value": -1.491595
  },
  {
   "period": "2014-12-01",
   "value": -1.37242
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-01-01",
   "value": -1.381626
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-02-01",
   "value": -1.438083
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-03-01",
   "value": -1.495378
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-04-01",
   "value": -1.552828
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-05-01",
   "value": -1.500944
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-06-01",
   "value": -1.527268
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-07-01",
   "value": -1.584631
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-08-01",
   "value": -1.600632
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-09-01",
   "value": -1.647096
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-10-01",
   "value": -1.663534
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-11-01",
   "value": -1.747428
  },
  {
   "period": "2015-12-01",
   "value": -1.571507
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-01-01",
   "value": -1.645023
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-02-01",
   "value": -1.722574
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-03-01",
   "value": -1.642427
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-04-01",
   "value": -1.656655
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-05-01",
   "value": -1.75456
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-06-01",
   "value": -1.762212
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-07-01",
   "value": -1.67014
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-08-01",
   "value": -1.808735
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-09-01",
   "value": -1.771121
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-10-01",
   "value": -1.704555
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-11-01",
   "value": -1.645422
  },
  {
   "period": "2016-12-01",
   "value": -1.447124
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-01-01",
   "value": -1.500209
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-02-01",
   "value": -1.485347
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-03-01",
   "value": -1.045845
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-04-01",
   "value": -0.896565
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-05-01",
   "value": -0.737093
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-06-01",
   "value": -0.449119
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-07-01",
   "value": -0.426963
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-08-01",
   "value": -0.405241
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-09-01",
   "value": -0.34539
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-10-01",
   "value": -0.509639
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-11-01",
   "value": -0.487607
  },
  {
   "period": "2017-12-01",
   "value": -0.270166
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-01-01",
   "value": -0.391267
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-02-01",
   "value": -0.377704
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-03-01",
   "value": -0.372784
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-04-01",
   "value": -0.400645
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-05-01",
   "value": -0.522998
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-06-01",
   "value": -0.245517
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-07-01",
   "value": -0.267595
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-08-01",
   "value": -0.120894
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-09-01",
   "value": 0.05232
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-10-01",
   "value": 0.123591
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-11-01",
   "value": 0.034616
  },
  {
   "period": "2018-12-01",
   "value": 0.25147
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-01-01",
   "value": 0.320567
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-02-01",
   "value": 0.358911
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-03-01",
   "value": 0.433438
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-04-01",
   "value": 0.408662
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-05-01",
   "value": 0.527572
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-06-01",
   "value": 0.4254
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-07-01",
   "value": 0.334295
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-08-01",
   "value": -0.071136
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-09-01",
   "value": -0.33001
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-10-01",
   "value": -0.587815
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-11-01",
   "value": -0.604696
  },
  {
   "period": "2019-12-01",
   "value": -0.540599
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-01-01",
   "value": -0.531739
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-02-01",
   "value": -0.617661
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-03-01",
   "value": -1.847742
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-04-01",
   "value": -1.180932
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-05-01",
   "value": -0.968456
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-06-01",
   "value": -0.933684
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-07-01",
   "value": -1.310696
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-08-01",
   "value": -1.472393
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-09-01",
   "value": -1.469064
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-10-01",
   "value": -1.386412
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-11-01",
   "value": -1.419378
  },
  {
   "period": "2020-12-01",
   "value": -1.374314
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-01-01",
   "value": -1.12637
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-02-01",
   "value": -1.030248
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-03-01",
   "value": -1.399479
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-04-01",
   "value": -2.728032
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-05-01",
   "value": -3.537696
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-06-01",
   "value": -4.189362
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-07-01",
   "value": -3.960719
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-08-01",
   "value": -3.689692
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-09-01",
   "value": -3.752856
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-10-01",
   "value": -4.340317
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-11-01",
   "value": -4.722572
  },
  {
   "period": "2021-12-01",
   "value": -5.238994
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-01-01",
   "value": -5.804285
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-02-01",
   "value": -6.205115
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-03-01",
   "value": -5.982379
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-04-01",
   "value": -5.658737
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-05-01",
   "value": -5.025448
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-06-01",
   "value": -4.156336
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-07-01",
   "value": -3.399917
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-08-01",
   "value": -3.786089
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-09-01",
   "value": -3.374288
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-10-01",
   "value": -3.045
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-11-01",
   "value": -1.969881
  },
  {
   "period": "2022-12-01",
   "value": -1.185532
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-01-01",
   "value": -1.039533
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-02-01",
   "value": -0.74826
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-03-01",
   "value": -0.566741
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-04-01",
   "value": -0.514364
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-05-01",
   "value": -0.087547
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-06-01",
   "value": 0.396404
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-07-01",
   "value": 0.799029
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-08-01",
   "value": 1.100857
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-09-01",
   "value": 1.371252
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-10-01",
   "value": 1.472598
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-11-01",
   "value": 1.482019
  },
  {
   "period": "2023-12-01",
   "value": 1.584527
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-01-01",
   "value": 1.641646
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-02-01",
   "value": 1.738035
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-03-01",
   "value": 1.683806
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-04-01",
   "value": 1.873975
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-05-01",
   "value": 2.10558
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-06-01",
   "value": 2.234583
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-07-01",
   "value": 2.269808
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-08-01",
   "value": 2.214904
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-09-01",
   "value": 1.717643
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-10-01",
   "value": 1.70131
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-11-01",
   "value": 1.464064
  },
  {
   "period": "2024-12-01",
   "value": 1.286666
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-01-01",
   "value": 1.21703
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-02-01",
   "value": 1.362443
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-03-01",
   "value": 1.691217
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-04-01",
   "value": 1.72398
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-05-01",
   "value": 1.73416
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-06-01",
   "value": 1.589105
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-07-01",
   "value": 1.445507
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-08-01",
   "value": 1.388194
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-09-01",
   "value": 1.230033
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-11-01",
   "value": 1.400955
  },
  {
   "period": "2025-12-01",
   "value": 1.103515
  },
  {
   "period": "2026-01-01",
   "value": 1.237971
  },
  {
   "period": "2026-02-01",
   "value": 1.277538
  },
  {
   "period": "2026-03-01",
   "value": 1.147832
  },
  {
   "period": "2026-04-01",
   "value": 1.006691
  },
  {
   "period": "2026-05-01",
   "value": 0.927058
  },
  {
   "period": "2026-06-01",
   "value": 1.184215
  },
  {
   "period": "2026-07-01",
   "value": 1.283482
  },
  {
   "period": "2026-08-01",
   "value": 1.303837
  }
 ],
 "url": "https://worldstat.us/indicator/us-realrate"
}